Following Early & Absentee Vote in The 2024 US Presidential Elections

With just 11 days remaining until the elections, it's interesting to track the votes that parties have already secured through In-Person Early Voting and Mail Ballots.




Trends on the National level:

Even though GOP invested in voting early campaign in the past few years, Democrats still hold a slight edge of about 3.3%

Turnout:



Women hold 8.2% advantage over men when it comes to early voting.

Turnout by Voter Frequency:



Trends in the Battleground States:
(Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin)

Democrats hold an advantage of 4.4% within the battleground states.

Turnout:


Turnout by Voter Frequency:


Arizona:


Georgia:


Michigan:

Michigan does not have partisan voter registration, so the modeled political affiliation is all over the place. Still, it shows clear advantage Democrats.

North Carolina:


Nevada:


Pennsylvania:


Pennsylvania Vote Share by Voter Frequency:


Wisconsin



Considering all this data and comparing it to the trends from 2020 and 2022, I believe this election is a tossup, with the outcome hinging on the final voter demographics and turnout on election day. It's anticipated that Republicans may not enjoy the same election day advantage they had in 2020, given their increased focus on early voting this time. Nevertheless, it's likely that the winner won't be clear on election night, again.

With that said, right now I believe that Harris has a slight edge within the the blue wall which gives her the advantage and better chances of victory. I state this based on the early vote share and voter frequency data in Pennsylvania.

I need a 269 to 269 just for all the drama that would happen.

Kirjoittanut Palmitas, 26.10.2024 at 10:05

I need a 269 to 269 just for all the drama that would happen.

No drama really, GOP right now has control of 26 the House delegations and Democrats control 22 delegations. Two states - Minnesota and North Carolina - have split delegations. There is no real possibility of Democrats gaining control of majority of the House delegations.

Kirjoittanut Oleg, 26.10.2024 at 12:41

Kirjoittanut Palmitas, 26.10.2024 at 10:05

I need a 269 to 269 just for all the drama that would happen.

No drama really, GOP right now has control of 26 the House delegations and Democrats control 22 delegations. Two states - Minnesota and North Carolina - have split delegations. There is no real possibility of Democrats gaining control of majority of the House delegations.

If i'm not mistaken the senate is controlled by democrats though (I might be wrong, don't really remember) Meaning a VP and a President from different parties